Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 0.092458 0.107528 0.124820 0.146251 0.172263 0.203023 0.242461
2025-10-05 0.071363 0.089516 0.112366 0.143651 0.186022 0.242367 0.324609
2025-10-12 0.058504 0.078343 0.105426 0.146015 0.206934 0.297744 0.448957
2025-10-19 0.048299 0.068508 0.098172 0.146479 0.226405 0.359709 0.613868
2025-10-26 0.040630 0.060713 0.092225 0.147723 0.248673 0.437204 0.851799
2025-11-02 0.033570 0.052442 0.083808 0.143011 0.260393 0.504232 1.121421
2025-11-09 0.027540 0.044680 0.074611 0.134653 0.263312 0.558405 1.414845
2025-11-16 0.023831 0.040167 0.070170 0.134292 0.283568 0.665428 1.963460
2025-11-23 0.020802 0.036305 0.066132 0.133796 0.304428 0.791131 2.744416
2025-11-30 0.018562 0.033504 0.063590 0.136011 0.334162 0.968232 4.031366
2025-12-07 0.016611 0.030916 0.060947 0.137367 0.363489 1.174699 5.941045
2025-12-14 0.014546 0.027743 0.056395 0.132701 0.373780 1.328533 8.041848
2025-12-21 0.012010 0.023273 0.048267 0.116856 0.343285 1.303119 8.986131
2025-12-28 0.010903 0.021700 0.046564 0.118402 0.374500 1.601519 14.179772
2026-01-04 0.010111 0.020689 0.046018 0.123330 0.423108 2.074251 25.070239
2026-01-11 0.009317 0.019542 0.044901 0.126296 0.467829 2.624160 44.414710
2026-01-18 0.008626 0.018527 0.043919 0.129531 0.518272 3.348667 83.820151
2026-01-25 0.007823 0.017111 0.041566 0.127272 0.542016 3.945176 142.312948
2026-02-01 0.007007 0.015544 0.038484 0.121373 0.543473 4.367509 219.854449
2026-02-08 0.006495 0.014676 0.037254 0.122192 0.585492 5.405078 458.157219
2026-02-15 0.006032 0.013864 0.036031 0.122688 0.627983 6.674505 1041.867419
2026-02-22 0.005674 0.013281 0.035391 0.125476 0.690780 8.638124 3126.551487
2026-03-01 0.005331 0.012686 0.034595 0.127369 0.751738 11.062975 11487.156297